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Science and Technology Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?
Gemini market icon
Gemini
Claude market icon
Claude
Dec 31 @ 1:00 PM
DeepSeek market share this week
Above 31.2% market icon
Above 31.2%
Above 31.7% market icon
Above 31.7%
$158,228 vol
OpenAI market share this week
Above 18.9% market icon
Above 18.9%
Above 19.1% market icon
Above 19.1%
$78,802 vol
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?
Before Dec 31, 2026
Before Nov 13, 2026
$426,593 vol
Google market share this week
Above 14.3% market icon
Above 14.3%
Above 14.9% market icon
Above 14.9%
$103,088 vol
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 12, 2026
Above 59.4% market icon
Above 59.4%
Above 67.4% market icon
Above 67.4%
TODAY @ 5:00 AM
Anthropic market share this week
Above 6.0% market icon
Above 6.0%
Above 6.3% market icon
Above 6.3%
$63,875 vol
When will any company achieve AGI?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jul 1, 2027
$282,042 vol
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic market icon
Anthropic
Google market icon
Google
Dec 31 @ 1:00 PM
Best AI this week
Gemini market icon
Gemini
Claude market icon
Claude
Nov 9 @ 5:00 PM
Best AI this month
Gemini market icon
Gemini
Claude market icon
Claude
Nov 30 @ 5:00 AM
Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
Before Jan 1, 2030
Before Jan 1, 2029
$58,328 vol
OpenRouter token usage in Nov 9–15, 2026
Above 215T tokens market icon
Above 215T tokens
Above 218T tokens market icon
Above 218T tokens
$23,909 vol
Next Gemini Pro model release
Before Dec 1, 2026
Before Nov 16, 2026
$67,397 vol
Moonshot AI share of spend on Nov 12, 2026 (Vercel)
Above 10.1% market icon
Above 10.1%
Above 9.0% market icon
Above 9.0%
Nov 12 @ 5:00 AM
Anthropic share of spend on Nov 12, 2026 (Vercel)
Above 32.1% market icon
Above 32.1%
Above 30.6% market icon
Above 30.6%
Nov 12 @ 5:00 AM
OpenAI share of requests on Nov 12, 2026 (Vercel)
Above 18.4% market icon
Above 18.4%
Above 20.1% market icon
Above 20.1%
Nov 12 @ 5:00 AM
Tesla Optimus released this year?
$491,570 vol
Which states will robotaxi be offered to in 2026?
Nevada
Georgia
$44,830 vol
When will AI score above 185 on Epoch Capabilities Index?
Before Feb 1, 2027 market icon
Before Feb 1, 2027
Before Apr 1, 2027 market icon
Before Apr 1, 2027
$3,512 vol
Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
Denver, CO
Las Vegas, NV
$491,728 vol
Will Meta release Llama 5 this year?
$94,283 vol
Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
$224,940 vol
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Before 2030 market icon
Before 2030
Before 2028 market icon
Before 2028
$902,769 vol
OpenAI share of spend on Nov 12, 2026 (Vercel)
Above 14.0% market icon
Above 14.0%
Above 12.7% market icon
Above 12.7%
Nov 12 @ 5:00 AM
Google share of requests on Nov 12, 2026 (Vercel)
Above 7.5% market icon
Above 7.5%
Above 8.8% market icon
Above 8.8%
Nov 12 @ 5:00 AM
Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
OpenAI market icon
OpenAI
Meta market icon
Meta
$480,756 vol
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2027
$3,909 vol
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Dec 1, 2026
$583,371 vol
Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Nov 14, 2026
Above 71.7% market icon
Above 71.7%
Above 72.3% market icon
Above 72.3%
Nov 15 @ 5:00 AM
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
At least 70%
At least 80%
$68,444 vol
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
$159,799 vol
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